Pick a door, Monty reveals a goat grey door , and you switch to the other. Look at your win rate. If you had a coin, how many flips would you need to convince yourself it was fair? You might get 2 heads in a row and think it was rigged.
Just play the game a few dozen times to even it out and reduce the noise. The best I can do with my original choice is 1 in 3. Instead of the regular game, imagine this variant:. Try this in the simulator game; use 10 doors instead of Your decision: Do you want a random door out of initial guess or the best door out of 99? Said another way, do you want 1 random chance or the best of 99 random chances?
Filtered is better. Yes, two choices are equally likely when you know nothing about either choice. You pick the name that sounds cooler, and is the best you can do. You know nothing about the situation. Would this change your guess? Your uninformed friend would still call it a situation. With the Japanese baseball players, you know more than your friend and have better chances. The more you test the old standard, the less likely the new choice beats it. This is what happens with the door game.
The odds are the champ is better than the new door, too. Q: Use the sample data and confidence level given below to complete parts a through d. A research i Q: Let two cards be dealt successfully, without replacement from the standard 52 card deck. Q: The probability that a soldier in particular region will be infected by a particular type of hepatit Give 5 examples. Q: A fair coin is flipped 6 times.
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Q: How many ways can a person invite 3 friends out of 6 friends for dinner. Write the word or phrase that best completes each statement or answers the question. Q: A biology researcher is studying the risk of extinction of a rare tree species in a remote part of t Q: c What is the covariance of X and Y?
The Problem Site. Quote Puzzler. Tile Puzzler. Loading profile Logged in as:. Password recovery. Go Pro! Wisely Choosing A Door The "three door puzzle" is an interesting and unusual probability question.
Here's the math behind the question. Exponential Growth and Coronavirus. A Question and Answer session with Professor Puzzler about the math behind infection spread. Book Scrounger.
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